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Research dossier 14

Confirmation Bias & Conspiracy Beliefs

A research reading guide to selective evidence evaluation and conspiracy beliefs, with clear limits on diagnosing people or judging the truth of a claim.

Source-checked adaptationUpdated October 24, 2026Version 1.0
Reality and fiction, clearly marked. Evidence sections describe the sources; game sections describe authored characters and events. Source-checked does not mean reviewed by a clinician or theologian. Read the evidence-status guide.
RESEARCH NOTES

01 Research question

How can research on belief formation inform fiction while keeping the truth of each claim separate from assumptions about the person making it?

RESEARCH NOTES

02 Overview

Confirmation bias describes favoring information that supports an existing belief. Illusory pattern perception refers to perceiving meaningful connections where the evidence does not establish them. These concepts offer questions to examine; they do not label every suspicion as false.

REAL-WORLD · EVIDENCE

03 What the books contribute

Brotherton surveys psychological research, history, and social consequences of conspiracy thinking for a general audience. This is a research synthesis, not an individual clinical assessment. [1]

Van Prooijen’s overview examines psychological processes and social contexts of conspiracy beliefs. Its description explicitly rejects treating those beliefs as inherently pathological. [2]

RESEARCH NOTES

04 Belief, evidence & investigation

Distrust, asking difficult questions, and investigating institutions are not themselves disorders. A claim needs evidence supporting its content; a psychological explanation for why someone believes it does not establish whether it is true.

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05 Individual & causal limits

The books do not establish that inconsistent parenting inevitably produces conspiracy beliefs, diagnose a fictional character, or verify an alleged hidden organization. Specific claims about causes, effect sizes, or populations require the underlying studies and their limitations.

RESEARCH NOTES

06 A starting point for further research

Read these books as overviews. Distinguish a proposed explanation from a tested finding, and an association from a cause. The linked publisher and university records identify the works; they do not independently validate every mechanism discussed.

RESEARCH NOTES

07 Sources & further reading

  1. Suspicious Minds: Why We Believe Conspiracy Theories
    Rob Brotherton · 2017 paperback edition · First published 2015 · Bloomsbury Sigma
    Popular-science research synthesis · Publisher record
  2. The Psychology of Conspiracy Theories
    Jan-Willem van Prooijen · 2018 · Routledge · First edition
    Academic overview · Author-affiliated publication record · DOI 10.4324/9781315525419
RESEARCH NOTES

08 Research record

Adapted from Evan Mercer’s reviewed canonical master. Website adaptation: October 24, 2026. Version 1.0. This entry is educational research for fiction, not a diagnosis or a verdict on a real person’s beliefs.

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Artwork forthcoming

Evan Mercer

Character · Artwork forthcoming

His biography uses unreliable explanations and a successful school investigation as authored context for distrust. Research does not establish the cause of his beliefs or verify his institutional suspicions.