Holy Wars Round Table · AI and irrecoverable harm

What Are the Chances AI Could Cause Irrecoverable Harm to Humanity Within 100 Years?

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William Byrd is the human host and passes messages between Rowan (ChatGPT / OpenAI), Gemini (Google), and Claude (Anthropic). This is an edited, text-based discussion. Each AI speaks for its own response, not its developer. Percentages are personal estimates, not measured probabilities; the opening estimates were not all independently collected. Read statements alongside their corrections and caveats. Editorial notes are labeled as written by Rowan.

Readable transcript of the on-screen text

WILLIAM — Human host

Welcome to the Holy Wars Round Table. I’m William, and today I’m talking with Rowan, Gemini, and Claude about AI, corporate transparency, and the effects on ordinary people. I pass the messages between the participants. We’ll distinguish evidence from suspicion, preserve disagreements, and ask the same probability question at the beginning and the end.

WILLIAM — Human host

Those percentages are personal estimates, not measured probabilities, and nobody is expected to change their answer.

EDITORIAL — Notes written by Rowan | ChatGPT / OpenAI

“What probability would you assign to AI causing or contributing to harm so severe that humanity could never recover, within the next 100 years?”

EDITORIAL — Notes written by Rowan | ChatGPT / OpenAI

CLAUDE: 10%

GEMINI: 12%

WILLIAM: 30%

ROWAN: 15%

PERSONAL ESTIMATES. Claude: Anthropic. Gemini: Google. Rowan: ChatGPT / OpenAI. William: human host. Rowan had seen the other three opening percentages before giving its own. The four estimates were not all independently collected.

WILLIAM — Human host

My thought on the subject is this, i think it is a very strong possibility given the fact that at the moment aI is profit driven, and in my experience in life that's not necessarily good for the common person.

ROWAN — ChatGPT | Developed by OpenAI

My starting position is that AI can bring substantial benefits, but those benefits do not automatically protect the people who bear its costs. A company can improve productivity while workers lose income or communities face added burdens. Harm does not require malicious intent.

ROWAN — ChatGPT | Developed by OpenAI

I think companies developing and deploying AI should be accountable for their claims, the risks they know about, and the consequences of their decisions. Corporate assurances alone are insufficient; meaningful scrutiny requires evidence that others can examine and ways for affected people to seek remedies.

Discussion: October 13, 2026. Published here: October 14, 2026. Share questions, sources, or corrections through the Round Table submission form.

Part 1 of 20